Could Oil Price Reach $170? An Analysis of Oil, Bitumen, Base Oil and Petroleum Product Markets in September 2026
The Energy Market Has Entered a New Phase
The global energy market in September 2026 is no longer dealing with an ordinary rise in crude oil prices.
What we are seeing across crude oil, bitumen, base oil, bunker fuel, and maritime transportation is the result of several major risks developing at the same time.
The sharp increase in crude prices, restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade and severe reduction of Iranian oil exports, attacks on tankers, rising war risk premiums, higher insurance and freight costs, restrictions on raw material imports into Iran, and the growing security risk around Bab el-Mandeb are collectively changing the structure of the market.
In my view, one of the biggest mistakes the market can make today is to treat these developments as a short-term disruption.
If pressure on Hormuz, Iran, and the Red Sea continues simultaneously, the issue will no longer be simply the Price of Oil.
It will increasingly become the Price of Access to Energy.
Oil Broke Through $102 and the Rally Has Not Stopped
When crude oil reached the $102 level, the increase was already significant.
Recent developments, however, suggest that even this level may not represent the end of the move.
Reuters reported on September 10 that Brent crude jumped around 6% to $107.08 per barrel, while WTI reached $101.62 per barrel.
Both benchmarks have risen more than 30% from their early-August lows.
The move followed another severe wave of maritime attacks and increasing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Reuters
This is an important distinction.
The market is no longer pricing only the probability of disruption.
It is beginning to price actual disruption to physical energy flows.
OPEC Supply Is Falling Despite Planned Production Increases
Another important signal is now coming directly from OPEC production.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC output fell by approximately 640,000 barrels per day in August, bringing total production from the 11 OPEC members covered by the survey to around 19.71 million barrels per day.
The decline occurred even though several OPEC+ members had planned to increase production.
Disruptions to Saudi exports and restrictions affecting Iranian oil flows effectively outweighed the planned supply increase.
Bitumen Magazine Analysis
Reuters
This is particularly important for the direction of oil prices.
The market has often assumed that OPEC+ spare capacity could provide a buffer against geopolitical disruption.
But spare capacity on paper and barrels that can actually reach the international market are two different things.
If production increases cannot translate into exportable supply, the market remains physically tight.
From the $120 Oil Price Forecast to a $170 Scenario
In my previous market analysis, I identified oil around $120 per barrel as one of the serious scenarios that energy traders and buyers should consider.
Under current conditions, that level can no longer be regarded as a distant scenario.
My next assessment is that, if the existing risks intensify simultaneously, oil at $170 per barrel or above should be included in the risk-management planning of companies exposed to the global energy market.
However, a professional analysis should distinguish between three different scenarios.
Base Scenario
If current conditions continue without a major expansion of the conflict, oil could remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period.
Under this scenario, war risk premiums and freight costs would remain elevated, but energy flows would not be completely interrupted.
Bull Scenario
Continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a further reduction in Iranian exports, additional tanker attacks, and escalating tensions in the Red Sea, could push crude oil toward the $120 to $150 range.
Extreme Scenario
If restrictions in Hormuz coincide with serious disruption around Bab el-Mandeb and another round of US or Israeli attacks against Iran, I believe the $150 to at least $170 range can no longer be excluded.
This Extreme Scenario is not a prediction that oil will definitely reach $170.
It is a risk scenario that professional traders, refiners, importers, and energy companies should be prepared to manage.
The Strait of Hormuz Has Become More Important Than the Oil Price Itself
The Hormuz crisis is not simply about removing several million barrels of crude oil from the market.
Before the war, approximately one-fifth of global oil supply passed through this strategic waterway, and current flows have still not returned to normal conditions.
Reuters reported that even with so-called dark crossings, a substantial portion of Gulf oil exports compared with pre-war conditions remains missing from the market.
There is another issue that deserves more attention.
A significant portion of Middle Eastern crude is Medium and Heavy Sour Crude.
For many refineries, these barrels cannot simply be replaced on a one-for-one basis with Light Sweet Crude.
The Hormuz crisis, therefore, represents both a Quantity Risk and a Quality and Refinery Feedstock Risk.
Iran and the Restriction of a Major Regional Energy Supply Source
The maritime blockade and severe restriction of Iranian oil exports affect much more than the crude oil market.
The consequences are gradually spreading into:
- Bitumen
- Base Oil
- Fuel Oil
- Bunker Fuel
- Other Petroleum Products
These restrictions are particularly important for international Base Oil buyers, as reduced availability can affect both Base Oil prices and delivery schedules.
At the same time, attacks on tankers and vessels operating in the region have increased.
Shipowners and insurance companies are consequently pricing Gulf operations according to an entirely different risk environment compared with only a few months ago.
War Risk Is Now Part of the Real Cost of Every Cargo
One of the most important structural changes in the market is that War Risk is no longer a secondary shipping expense.
It has become a major component of Landed Cost.
Transit costs through Hormuz have surged dramatically, with war risk premiums reportedly reaching as much as 10% of cargo value in some cases.
Additional costs associated with individual transits can reach between $10 million and $20 million.
Detailed Market Report
Reuters
For a physical commodity trader, these numbers can be considerably more important than a few dollars of difference in FOB price.
A commodity may appear cheaper at origin while ultimately producing a significantly higher Landed Cost.
Bunker Fuel Has Become Another Major Cost Pressure
The shipping market is also facing a second problem beyond insurance and war risk.
Bunker fuel prices have risen sharply as refiners reduce fuel oil output and prioritize higher-value products such as diesel and gasoline.
Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil prices in Singapore have increased approximately 76% since the beginning of the Iran war, while fuel oil inventories at major hubs have remained under pressure.
This is particularly important for bitumen trade because ocean freight represents a significant component of the final delivered price in markets such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and other long-distance destinations.
Detailed Bitumen and Shipping Analysis
Reuters
The result is straightforward.
Even when the FOB Bitumen Price remains stable, the CFR or CIF Bitumen Price can rise significantly because the vessel itself has become more expensive to operate, insure, and position.
Maritime Freight Has Risen Sharply
Market Assessment / Trading Desk Data
Based on our current commercial market assessments, maritime freight on some routes connected to the region has increased by approximately 150% compared with normal conditions.
But bunker prices are only part of the freight equation.
The following factors are also being incorporated into freight quotations:
- War Risk Insurance
- Vessel Availability
- Owner Risk Premiums
- Longer Routing
- The possibility of delays
For international commodity buyers, this means the traditional focus on FOB Price alone is becoming increasingly unreliable.
Landed Cost is now the more important number.
Bab el-Mandeb Could Become the Market’s Second Major Crisis
Another risk that should not be underestimated is Bab el-Mandeb.
Recent developments involving Houthi forces around Yemen have increased concerns over the security of this strategic shipping corridor.
With Hormuz under pressure, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly dependent on its Red Sea infrastructure for part of its crude exports.
If Hormuz in the east and Bab el-Mandeb in the west experience serious disruption simultaneously, the market would face a Two-Chokepoint Risk.
In my assessment, this is one of the most important potential triggers capable of moving crude significantly beyond $120 per barrel.
Iranian Bitumen Market: FOB May Remain Relatively Stable but Landed Cost Will Not
Iran is one of the world’s major sources of bitumen for international trade, and restrictions on Iranian exports directly affect importing markets across Asia and Africa.
Market Assessment / Trading Desk Data
Bitumen 60/70 packed in New Steel Drums is currently trading at approximately $415 per metric ton FOB Bandar Abbas in the Iranian export market.
One important point is that a rise in crude oil does not necessarily produce an equivalent or immediate increase in the FOB price of bitumen.
The following factors all influence bitumen prices:
- Feedstock pricing
- Refinery economics
- Exchange rates
- Domestic supply
- Production conditions
The greater problem today is Availability and Logistics.
Even if FOB Bitumen remains around current levels, higher Freight, Insurance, War Risk, Bunker Fuel, and restricted supply can substantially increase the actual cost of bitumen at destination.
For importers, this distinction is becoming increasingly important.
The cheapest FOB supplier is not necessarily the supplier offering the lowest final cost.
Base Oil SN500 Price at Around $1,200 FOB Bandar Abbas
Market Assessment / Trading Desk Data
In current commercial offers and transactions, Base Oil SN500 on an FOB Bandar Abbas basis is trading around $1,200 per metric ton.
The Base Oil market is facing pressure from two directions simultaneously:
Higher Crude Oil and Feedstock Costs
Lower Availability
If restrictions on raw material imports into Iran continue while maritime exports remain disrupted, Base Oil may increasingly face a Supply Availability Problem rather than simply a Demand Problem.
For international buyers, this environment increases the importance of:
- Long-term supply arrangements
- Inventory Planning
Base Oil Market Outlook in September 2026
The Base Oil market is becoming increasingly sensitive to crude oil prices, feedstock availability, refinery conditions, and international logistics. In September 2026, these factors are creating additional uncertainty for buyers and traders of Base Oil.
For international buyers, the price of Base Oil cannot be evaluated only on an FOB basis. Freight, insurance, war risk premiums, vessel availability, and delivery reliability can have a significant impact on the final landed cost.
The current situation is particularly important for Base Oil SN500, which is widely used in lubricant manufacturing and industrial applications. Higher crude oil and feedstock costs may increase production costs, while restrictions on raw material imports can reduce the availability of Base Oil in export markets.
For buyers looking to purchase Base Oil SN500, supply reliability may become as important as the quoted price. A competitive FOB offer does not necessarily represent the lowest final cost if freight, insurance, and logistical risks are significantly higher.
ASA Oil monitors developments in the Base Oil market, including changes in feedstock costs, supply availability, export conditions, and international freight. These factors should be considered when evaluating Base Oil prices and planning future purchases.
Iran’s Domestic Economy: USD/IRR at 230,000 Toman and Higher Gasoline Prices
Market Assessment / Trading Desk Data
The US dollar has reached approximately 230,000 toman in the Iranian market, increasing pressure on production, packaging, inland transportation, and service costs.
Gasoline prices for part of the consumer market have also doubled during the past week, rising from 5,000 to 10,000 toman per liter.
The Associated Press also reported on September 7 that gasoline prices had doubled for higher-consumption users.
Higher domestic energy costs gradually feed into:
- Trucking
- Manufacturing
- Packaging
- Other services
Therefore, even if higher crude oil prices do not translate proportionally into higher Iranian bitumen FOB prices, secondary costs can still reduce Iran’s traditional export price advantage.
Federal Reserve: Economic Risk Alongside Geopolitical Risk
The market is not facing geopolitical risk alone.
The Federal Reserve is due to make its September interest-rate decision, and another rate increase has become a serious market possibility.
Reuters reported that, following US inflation data, the probability of a rate increase implied by CME Fed Watch had risen to approximately 70%.
The combination of Oil Above $100 and Higher Interest Rates is not favorable for equity markets.
Energy Inflation increases while the Cost of Capital rises at the same time.
In such an environment, the risk of a deeper correction in US equity markets should also be taken seriously.
Pickaxe Mountain and the US Midterm Elections
The possibility of another attack on Iran also remains on the table.
On September 10, Trump again warned about activity at Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz and raised the possibility of a US attack on the facility.
Reuters
This threat becomes particularly relevant as the United States approaches the November midterm elections.
For oil markets, an attack does not necessarily have to happen before prices react.
An increase in the Probability of Escalation alone can add to the War Premium.
If the crisis continues through the elections without a sustainable agreement, another round of tension involving the United States, Israel, and Iran should remain part of energy-market scenario planning.
A Multidisciplinary View of the Market
Looking at current conditions through a multidisciplinary analytical framework produces a clearer picture.
- From an Iranian oil-market perspective: the central issue is Reliability of Supply.
- From a US strategy and macroeconomic perspective: the combination of oil above $100, inflation, and potentially higher interest rates represents a major economic risk.
- From the perspective of a Gulf-based physical trader: the key issue is no longer simply Product Price.
- Vessel Availability, Insurance, War Risk, and the actual ability to execute a contract have become equally important.
- For African markets: rising Freight is particularly significant because buyers of Bitumen, Base Oil, and other Petroleum Products are highly sensitive to Landed Cost.
- From a European perspective: simultaneous disruption in Hormuz and the Red Sea could once again place energy security and import costs at the center of economic policy.
- From a petroleum engineering perspective: the loss of Medium and Heavy Sour Crude cannot simply be compensated for by increasing supplies of Light Sweet Crude.
- From a macroeconomic perspective: an Oil Shock combined with Higher Interest Rates increases the risk of Stagflation.
- From an international trade perspective: the market is shifting from Price Competition toward Supply Security.
In a normal market, the buyer asks:
Who has the best price?
In a crisis market, the more important question becomes:
Who can actually deliver?
Conclusion: The Next Market Will Be Defined by Availability Not Only Price
The energy market in September 2026 has entered a phase where crude oil prices alone no longer provide a complete picture.
The real cost of energy is now being determined by four variables:
- Commodity Price
- Availability
- Logistics
- Geopolitical Risk
The latest OPEC data reinforces this view.
A planned production increase means little if geopolitical disruption prevents those additional barrels from reaching the international market.
The same principle applies to Bitumen and Base Oil.
Iranian bitumen FOB prices may not increase at the same rate as crude oil in the short term.
However, if export restrictions, bunker fuel, insurance, and freight costs remain elevated, the price paid by buyers at destination will continue to rise.
In Base Oil, higher feedstock costs combined with constrained supply could place further pressure on the market in the coming months.
In my view, companies focusing exclusively on the lowest Purchase Price may be misreading the most important risk in today’s market.
In the months ahead, Availability of Supply and Reliability of Delivery could become considerably more important than a few dollars per metric ton in price difference.
$170 oil is not my Base Scenario.
But under current conditions, it is no longer a scenario that a professional trader, refiner, importer, or risk manager can afford to exclude from planning.
Jahan Oskoueifar
Chief Commercial Officer
Oil & Petroleum Products Market Analyst and Futurist with more than 11 years of experience in international bitumen and petroleum product trading and exports
